A Disappointed Detroit Piston Fan's Analysis of the 2023 NBA Trade Deadline (part 2/2)
Analyzing the trade of Saddiq Bey for James Wiseman
So the Pistons did end up making one trade. In a four-team deal the Pistons ended up sending Saddiq Bey to Atlanta and got James Wiseman in return.
I like Saddiq and he has been one of my favorite Pistons since he was drafted, but I get that he was approaching a crossroads with this team. His lack of defensive development in particular was troublesome for a team that needs competent defenders at every single position. But, as Pistons Thoughts so eloquently put it:
The main problem I have with moving Saddiq is the narrative started by an anonymous team source. The Athletic’s James Edwards III wrote in an article post-trade that:
“On the floor, Bey’s style of play was starting to wear on some in Detroit’s organization. He did have the ability to score in bunches, and did so often, but his shot selection and, at times, tunnel vision went against what the team wanted to see from him as a player. The Pistons wanted Bey to do more by doing less. Bey was interested in expanding his game. Bey’s most efficient season came his rookie year when he was primarily a catch-and-shoot weapon. Since then, when he’s dabbled in self-creation more, his efficiency has dropped significantly. Bey hasn’t had an effective-field-goal percentage greater than 50 since his rookie year.”
To which my response is exactly what former Athletic and Forbes Pistons expert and current site expert for Hoops Habit, Duncan Smith, said:
These statements about Saddiq by those in the Pistons is also contrary to what Coach Casey said about Saddiq in March of 2021. After scoring 51 points last season Casey even remarked that, “There’s nothing about Saddiq Bey that’s selfish; he’s a team guy.” And going into this past offseason, MLive’s Lauren Williams reported that, “Casey and general manager Troy Weaver could not have been happier with the progress that Bey made in his second year.” So my only question in this regard is…what changed between April of 2022 and now?
Also, the statement that Saddiq, “did have the ability to score in bunches, and did so often, but his shot selection [was bad] and, at times, [had] tunnel vision,” could be said about MANY guys on this team. Of the Pistons players who have suited up for at least 500 minutes Seven of them post assist percentages under 15.5% and five of them are under 9.5%. There are also three other Pistons in the regular rotation who have an effective field goal percentages worse than Saddiq’s 48.8% and these same three players also have true shooting percentages worse than Saddiq who ended at 55.2%.
To be fair, we don’t know who made that statement within the Pistons…but it is not a good look for the organization. Saddiq was a guy the team did NOTHING but praise while he was in the building. Now as soon as he is gone, the absolute first thing in terms of their reasoning for trading him is that he wore on them and was an inefficient ball hog? I don’t like when things like this happen where organizations seem to be talking out both sides of their mouths. And I know Troy Weaver did end up saying Saddiq is ‘family’ and he is praying for his success. I just hope this was some rando in the building and the organization reprimands them for these comments because it DOES look like pointing the finger at the player and not the organization.
But what about James Wiseman you say? Shouldn’t you talk about him in the deal? And, honestly, I am already sick of talking about James Wiseman. Bryce Simon of Motor City Hoops put out a tweet right before Wiseman’s debut against the Celtics asking for no one to overreact to how Wiseman plays down the stretch
…but I mean it happened before he even suited up.
So the reason we have for the trade is that Saddiq is a chucker that didn’t share the ball, and now Troy Weaver loudly proclaims Wiseman was his number one overall prospect in the 2020 Draft. Sadly, this put many Piston fans into two camps immediately: People buying in to Wiseman’s draft position as evidence that he will flourish when given more minutes; and the people stating that Wiseman is immediate garbage because he couldn’t crack the rotation while supported by the two greatest shooters of all time and one of the top five best defenders in defensive history.
I just think no one wants to see a middle ground right now—which is why I am already sick of talking about James Wiseman in Detroit. But, I also want to be one of the few Piston voices who is in this middle ground, so let me give you some numbers.
Now that Wiseman has made his Pistons debut, he has played a total of 286 minutes this season. That is just slightly less than rookie forward Jabari Walker of the Portland Trailblazers and his 335 minutes. Wiseman beats the rookie in the counting stats for sure, but when you look into other data sets you see Wiseman’s rawness really come into view. On/Off numbers are incredibly telling where the rookie and 57th pick in the NBA Draft this past year is beating the third year big man in almost every conceivable metric. Many of Wiseman’s numbers put him in the 10th or below percentile as well.
I make this comp and give these number because: YES, people who want to root for this trade to work we SHOULD treat Wiseman like a rookie; and YES, people who think this move makes no sense there is considerable evidence to give you reason to do so. But seeing as Wiseman has played less total minutes in three years than Jalen Duren has played this season alone we got to stop both saying “oh Wiseman was considered the #1 pick in 2020” and “this guy sucks and is a bust.”
There are plenty of top 5 big men who initially under-preformed only to play 10 or more years in the NBA. I implore EVERYONE invested in this trade look at Tyson Chandler and Kwame Brown. Even if Wiseman isn’t a 20/10 guy, there is still hope he is a solid NBA big man if he is just given time.
Has Troy Weaver given James Wiseman and the Pistons that time, though? I root for the Pistons, but I do not blindly support everyone in that building or cheer everyone whoever put on the uniform. If I think anyone in the Pistons organization is doing something harmful, confusing, or severely limiting the franchise in some way I will say that. And this deal to me is both confusing and severely limiting Detroit’s rebuild going forward.
Going forward in this article, I am echoing many great points brought about by DetroitBadBoys.com’s Lazarus Jackson and Ben Gulker as well as the Athletic’s Andrew Schlecht. Definitely go check out the Detroit Bad Boys Podcast reaction to this trade as well as the Athletic’s Saturday Slam and Jam Show’s thoughts on this deal.
Wiseman is a PROJECT. No one can argue otherwise. Playing him significant minutes means you are going to have to live with a guy who, we have established, is essentially a rookie. So he and Duren will make plenty of mistakes across this year and into next trying to figure out how to play good NBA defense. You also don’t know what Wiseman’s go-to offensive skills are so you have to help him build some while making sure he is not a drag on your offense.
Wiseman has also shown, so far, he can only play center. MAYBE this changes down the line…but it is not happening any time soon AND if you want Wiseman to develop at power forward you will be doing so at the expense of who you already have. Duren and Wiseman frontcourt lineups are almost out of the question this season. Maybe you believe Wiseman’s offseason is enough to get him minutes at the 4. This means less time for Beef Stew and keeping Bojan at small forward more. Oh and Marvin Bagley and Isaiah Livers are still here, so much less of a bench role for both players.
Wiseman’s contract is on the same timeline as Saddiq’s AND his cap number and cap hit are SIGNIFICANTLY larger. Saddiq and Wiseman’s deal both expire at the end of next season and both will be restricted free agents. Saddiq’s final year is worth just over $4.5 million whereas Wiseman’s contract clocks in at just over $12.1 million. Saddiq’a cap hold for the 2024 offseason will be $6,498,258 and Wiseman’s is $15,815,870. From a negotiating standpoint, you just more than doubled where your starting point is for a guy you don’t even have a full season’s worth of data on. This team must have REALLY hated Saddiq if they were not willing to even talk to him about a deal and instead negotiate with a guy who we know very little about.
This is a play based on upside and Troy Weaver’s evaluation of the 2020 NBA Draft. While I WANT TO be chartable and open minded when breaking this thing down, here is where I cannot help but be extremely critical. Troy Weaver and the Pistons have made it known to EVERYBODY that Wiseman was their number one guy in the 2020 draft and they feel they can unlock him. My response to that is pretty much the same as Laz’s in the DBB podcast reviewing this trade,
“nothing it seems that has happened [since the 2020 NBA Draft] has shaken Troy Weaver of that notion that James Wiseman is the best player from that draft class or has the potential to be the best player from that Draft class. To me, that lack of mental agility, that…being that stubborn in your own evaluation is not a great sign from a general manager…you want someone who’s able to input new information. You want someone who’s able to look at the track record and history and see maybe this hasn’t worked out the way I thought it would.”
Yet, Troy Weaver has said that all Wiseman needs is opportunity and time. While I get having confidence in a player and wanting to instill a belief in a young man that they can be great, this kind of statement disregards everything that has happened in two and a half NBA seasons. This is a player the Warriors NEEDED in their rotation. But because he was so underwhelming he had to go to the G League to develop and when he came back he could not carve out enough of a role to beat out JaMychal Green, Moses Moody, Ty Jerome, Anthony Lamb, or Jonathan Kuminga for minutes.
Kuminga is a good parallel here as he is equally raw, yet talented. But Kuminga’s rebounding, passing, and jump shooting have all developed enough to this point that he is the 8th man in the Warriors lineup. While I understand you need reps IN GAME in order to fully develop your skills, Wiseman has had a full year of experience of being in the building and being in the Warriors system. The fact he was so fundamentally unprepared to play the NBA that he had to go to the G League before his return should be a major pump the breaks moment for any evaluator to look at Wiseman’s draft profile and say, “maybe I should not put #1 overall prospect pressure on him anymore.”
I think the Athletic’s Andrew Schlecht said it best on the Saturday Slam and Jam when he described this trade giving you an incredibly small margin for error. Yes, there is the logjam at the big man positions now. Duren, Wiseman, and Bagley all need time at center. If you manage to get lucky enough to get Victor Wembanyama, then one of those three is pretty much gone. And this also means Isaiah Stewart is limited to just power forward because even without Wembanyama, there are NOT enough minutes at the center position.
The Pistons believe these centers could play good defense in the future, but that requires another season or two of rough play on that end. That means in year 4 of the Weaver rebuild they are still teaching their big men how to play even average defense and HOPING in year 5 they will be good. And in the offseason between year 4 and 5 you have to decide whether or not you want to pay Wiseman…so he NEEDS to show whether or not he is any good on defense for you to make that investment.
Speaking of investment, the Pistons currently have $49,595,534 tied up in JUST big men. Next season it will be $ 37,083,500 as the DeAndre Jordan dead money comes off the books and assuming Nerlens Noel’s team option is declined. This also doesn’t factor in Bojan and Isaiah Livers as both work best at the 4. If you include them, then that adds over $20 million both this season and next to the totals I have listed. I mainly bring up this point because the team meanwhile has ZERO dollars invested in anyone listed as a SF on basketball reference.
Yes, I understand the era is position-less, but ask ANYONE who has followed this team since 2013 what the weakest position is and the answer is Small Forward. Ask anyone who has followed this team the last 5 years what they think the team’s biggest need is, and the answer is a wing. Going into this offseason, ask ANY Pistons content creator what this team needs more than anything? A wing…and one that can actually guard small forwards. Why has this need remained unaddressed even in this most recent rebuild while the big men—and specifically the centers—are paraded in and out of Motown?
This next season will be year 4 of the Weaver rebuild and the mandate is that they want to win more games than they have thus far and play “Detroit Pistons defense.” So in year 4 you will have 3 big men who all play center ‘anchoring’ this defense. Two of the 3 are essentially second year players since Duren IS in his second season and Wiseman will be minutes-wise. The third of these centers CANNOT play winning defense either on the perimeter or as a strictly paint defender. You also have the majority of your money tied to players who occupy a frontcourt position and have no one who can guard a small forward.
I just don’t understand what the plan is anymore. Year 4 is almost upon us and Troy Weaver is still saying the same lines about how he wants the team to be in the future. Meanwhile the Pistons operate with the same holes in the roster while Weaver takes the same chances on reclamation projects like Wiseman. And being objective, none of these reclamation projects have worked out. Jahlil Okafor, Josh Jackson, Dennis Smith Jr., Trey Lyles, and Kevin Knox all play basketball elsewhere. And, Marvin Bagley is still what he was when the Pistons traded for him: a defensively limited center who can score but can’t be relied upon to stay healthy.
I don’t know what ownership thinks of all this and MAYBE the plan all along was to have 5 years before you expect to be a winner. Even then, you are banking on MAJOR improvements internally as well as one or two good moves EXTERNALLY in order to get out of the NBA cellar all in ONE YEAR. And why you felt the need to disregard the wing position in the meantime is the most bizarre aspect of this to me.
Maybe the hope was on Saddiq to have stabilized the small forward by this time in the rebuild? So the response to that not happening was let’s move on from him since he is not a good defender and is taking too many bad shots and we’ll bring in another center who has played less than our rookie because we want to spend more time trying to see if he can be as good as our GM thinks he is? I don’t understand it. Perhaps there will be moves to come in the offseason that help this trade deadline make more sense, but looking at what has been the Troy Weaver Pistons and the future the James Wiseman deal looks to create, the team seems to be heavily invested in big men and waiting out everything else to bring in a capable NBA wing.