For the fourth version of the 2023 NBA Draft Big Board we are going to switch things up. Now that almost every prospect’s season is finished, the final evaluations and grades are closer to being set since evaluators have a full season’s worth of tape on almost everyone. What that means here at RezBall is that it is time to have more definitive tiers.
If you have been with us since our first Big Board back in January, you will know that the Tiers have been: the Platinum Diamond Tier: Put them in the Hall of Fame Already; Tier 1: The Race for the Third Overall Pick; Tier 2: Starter Potential, Maybe More…; Tier 3: Rotational Piece; and Tier 4: Get Them on the Phone!: Undrafted Free Agents. With players falling out of the Race for the Third Overall Pick, and things like prospects returning to school, I wanted to try and be more specific about where the delineations are for me in this draft.
Now when I say delineations I mean a few things. First is the simple differences of who I want to invest a first-round, four-year contract in versus who I would rather take less of a risk on with those easier to get out of second-round contracts. You also know in previous Big Boards I like to separate who I believe have superstar, star, starter, and rotation player potential. This time around I want to argue for what order the 2023 Draft prospects should be selected in.
The tiers now are for saying this is how I would set my order for the 2023 NBA Draft. While I may think players within a certain tier could go in a different order, I would argue strongly that a team SHOULD NOT draft players in the tiers below them. So, for the April Big Board the Tiers will be: Alien Tier: Do you NOT KNOW the name of Victor Wembanyama?; Tier 1: Always in Contention for the Top Spot; Tier 2: They ARE the Third Pick; Tier 3: NBA Starter Skills Pack; Tier 4: Major Potential, Major Concerns; Tier 5: Stick Them In the Rotation; Tier 6: I Believe! I Believe!
Let me break down just exactly what these new tiers mean. The Alien Tier was really created for Victor Wembanyama to emphasize how we have never seen a player like this before and how if you are lucky enough to win the #1 pick this year YOU DON’T PASS HIM UP! Tier 1: Always in Contention for the Top Spot are players that in other non-Victor Wembanyama drafts have the talent to be considered the #1 overall pick. Tier 2: They ARE the Third Pick are players in this draft that I think have a legitimate case to be the third overall pick in this draft and I would not argue if they did end up there on draft night.
Tier 3: NBA Starter Skills Pack are the prospects I believe have multiple skills in their profile that project them as NBA starters one day. Tier 4: Major Potential, Major Concerns are the players I acknowledge have a high ceiling and I understand why some people have them highly ranked, but I see major concerns in their profile that knock them down my board. Tier 5: Stick Them In the Rotation are players who think have AT LEAST one skill that will keep them in an NBA rotation for their career. And last, but not least, Tier 6: I Believe! I Believe! are the players that I think will go undrafted, but who I would get on the phone pronto to make a Two-Way player because they have skills I want to develop in the G League.
Alien Tier: Do you NOT KNOW the name of Victor Wembanyama?
1) Victor Wembanyama, C/PF Metropolitans 92
Victor Wembanyama or LeBron James, who do you think is the better NBA Draft prospect? That’s where the conversation has turned now that draft season gets closer to the draft.
We have marveled at Wembanyama’s size at seven-foot four-inches tall with an eight-foot wingspan. We have gawked at the stats of 21.4 points per game, 9.9 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks To me, however, one of the greatest things about Wembanyama is his durability. Wembanyama currently ranks sixth in Betclic Élite (France’s Top Basketball Division) in total minutes played at 935. Wembanyama also is only one of three players on Metropolitans 92 to play all 29 games—and he leads his entire team in minutes played eclipsing second place Lahaou Konate by 164 minutes.
Wembanyama’s Metropolitans 92 squad also currently sits in second place in their division. And this is a HUGE feat as Metropolitans 92 is not a powerhouse known for hoisting up many trophies. From his freakish size, to his unparalleled skill and production, to his hustle and consistency there is nothing to question in the profile of Victor Wembanyama. He will knock opposing teams off balance and will work from day one in the NBA.
Tier 1: Always in Contention for the Top Spot
2) Scoot Henderson, PG/SG G League Ignite
I wanted to create this tier to get people to understand that Scoot is indeed talented and that in almost any draft (and definitely ones that don’t feature a member of the Monstars), Scoot would be in consideration for the number one overall selection.
While only standing six-foot two-inches tall and clocking in at a muscular 195 pounds this is a point guard that knows how to run an offense and change up his speeds against professional ballers. The passing stats are one of the standout lines in the statistical breakdown. 30.6% assist percentage, 12.4% Turnover Rate, and accounting for 35.7% of his team’s assists shows this man knows where his teammates are at all times and how to get the the ball in the easiest spot.
He also is a self creator that can attack off the dribble in multiple ways. 62.8% of his offense is unassisted, meaning he creates over 60% of his own offense. 42.2% of his offense comes off of points in the paint. 20.6% of his points scored come from the free throw line. And, 22.2% of his points come from attacking in the midrange. While there is still much room to improve with his three-point shot, Scoot Henderson already gets to the hoop and finishes, draws contact to get free throws and put extra pressure on the defense, and has a midrange game necessary to attack NBA defenses who will try to just sag off him and cut off his path to the hoop.
All of this SCREAMS advanced NBA point guard—and at 19 year’s old there are few names in NBA history that had all of this in their toolbox coming into the league let alone by the time they were done playing.
Tier 2: They ARE the Third Pick
3) Ausar Thompson, SF/PF Overtime Elite
4) Cam Whitmore, SF/PF Villanova
5) Jarace Walker, PF/C Houston
6) Brandon Miller, PF/SF Alabama
7) Amen Thompson, PG/SG Overtime Elite
If you followed my Big Boards before this one, you know this used to be The Race For the Third Pick. Well, now I think the race is over and it ended in a tie. If ANY of the players in this tier go #3 on Draft night, they deserve it. However, Amen Thompson has been one of the more consistent names floated out there about who should go #3 all season long.
Perhaps the best athlete in this class (really it is only a two man race with he and Wembanyama), Amen is a force or nature with rare passing skills for someone so young with the kind of explosion to drop the hammer at any time. The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie called Amen a walking paint touch, and I think that is the best way to get anyone to understand what kind of impact this young man can have on a basketball court.
Dropping 16.4 points per game, 5.9 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 2.3 steals in the 16 game schedule for the City Reapers of the Overtime Elite league, Amen is a point guard first and foremost. At six-foot seven-inches tall and listed at 209 pounds, Amen uses his advanced handle and his walking paint touch ability to get into the teeth of the defense to get his teammates as many open shots as possible. And make no mistake about it, Amen IS a live-dribble passer creating on the move and seeing windows open before anyone else. As evidence by his scoring numbers, Amen also knows how to convert his walking paint touches into finishes and contact for extra points at the free throw line.
Shooting is the MAJOR concern as Amen has never been a shooter and looks stiff and hesitant to do so when asked to space the floor more. When your career “high” from long range is 30% in a 5 game playoff stretch taking 4 attempts per game, you have a long ways to go to being even passable from downtown.
There is also the “competition” question with Amen and his brother Ausar, but to me I counter it with this. I think Amen and Ausar faced MUCH stiffer competition than Kobe, KG, TMac, and LeBron coming out of high school. I mean dig back even further to someone like Shawn Kemp who came out of Community College and the point is this: YOU SCOUT THE PLAYER BEFORE WHO THEY ARE PLAYING. Yes, it does help when the teams they line up against play something closer to NBA defense and offense, but it is NOT the main reason players go on to succeed in the NBA. Their skill, athleticism, and ability to work and improve should reign supreme over the rest of the evaluation in my opinion.
If you want the absolute best coverage on Amen and his brother Ausar as well as a great overview of the Overtime Elite program, Mirin Fader had a fantastic article that is a MUST read.
Tier 3: NBA Starter Skills Pack
8) Keyonte George, SG/PG Baylor
9) Cason Wallace, PG/SG Kentucky
10) Gradey Dick, SG/SF Kansas
11) Anthony Black, PG/SG Arkansas
12) Taylor Hendricks, SF/PF UCF
Taylor Hendricks is a player I bought into very early on because of his combination of size, shooting, and defensive skills. Standing six-foot nine-inches tall and weighing in at 210 pounds, Hendricks has NBA forward size. Then you look at his stat-line and the two things that immediately stand out are his 39.4% from three on 4.6 attempts per game and his 1.7 blocks per game.
Hendricks is a player type I like to call Role-Player Supreme aka The Tayshaun. I name this type after former Detroit Pistons chase-down block LEGEND Tayshaun Prince. They are not a primary offensive option, but they do EVERYTHING else at THE HIGHEST level possible. And like Tayshaun, Taylor Hendricks is a great instinctual defender, a knock down catch-and-shoot three-point shooter, and a fantastic rebounder for his position. This is all evidenced by the fact as a freshman Taylor Hendricks led a 19-15 UCF squad in points, rebounds, blocked shots, and three point percentage. He also sank 53.5% of his 230 two-point shots. Hendricks DOES NOT WASTE SHOTS.
What Henricks does lack, however, is ball skills. Why I keep him at 12 despite the fact that I really love his game, is that Hendricks cannot create much for himself and even less for others. His handle is enough to attack closeouts, but if you ask him to run even secondary or tertiary offense, he does not have the ball handling that allows him to attack a defense in multiple ways. While his passing from a standstill is above average, off the dribble you will see Hendricks make VERY few passes that set up his teammates for open looks. This combination of an okay-at-best handle coupled with below average playmaking on the move, for me, keeps Hendricks below all the guys that do display these things in this draft.
To end my thoughts on Taylor Hendricks, I have been getting a TON of questions from the Pistons community about if he has potential worthy of being a Top 5 pick in this draft. While I think his lack of ball skills keep him below everyone I rank ahead of him, Hendricks was ONE three point make away from being a 40% three-point shooter on the year and TWO free thrown makes from finishing at 80% from the line. Hendricks only needs to make MINOR improvements to be amongst the most efficient starter caliber players in the 2023 NBA Draft Class.
Tier 4: Major Potential, Major Concerns
13) GG Jackson, PF/C South Carolina
14) Nick Smith Jr, SG/PG Arkansas
15) Kris Murray, PF/SF Iowa
16) Dariq Whitehead, SG/SF Duke
17) Jalen Hood-Schifino, PG/SG Indiana
18) Kobe Bufkin, PG/SG Michigan
19) Rayan Rupert, SF/SG New Zealand Breakers
20) Bilal Coulibaly, SF/SG Metropolitans 92
21) Dereck Lively II, C/PF Duke
22) Jordan Hawkins, SG UConn
23) Jordan Walsh, SF/PF Arkansas
24) Jett Howard, SF/SG Michigan
25) Brice Sensabaugh, PF/SF Ohio State
Nick Smith Jr. might be the most difficult evaluation of any draft prospect this year. I had a tough time even figuring out what to say about him for this blurb! Smith Jr. came into the year with potential top 5 pick hype and a summer’s worth of work with Arkansas in their gym and overseas that showed he was set up to be THE man to score on offense.
Unfortunately, an injury to Smith’s right knee forced him to miss the first six games of the season. Then after trying to play on it for five games at the end of November and the beginning of December, he would be out indefinitely to give his knee time to heal and would not return to the lineup until February 11, 2023. In the final 12 games of his season, Smith looked to be turning things around scoring in double figures in his last seven games of the season. Then in the NCAA Tournament he managed just 17 total points across three games.
For the season Nick Smith Jr. played in a total of 17 games and put up per game stats of: 12.5 points, 1.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.1 blocks. His shooting splits were 39.7% from two-point range, 33.8% from three-point distance, and 74.0% from the free throw line. To keep it real, there is VERY little to buy into when looking at just the numbers—including his listed height and weight of six-foot five-inches and 185 pounds.
The criticisms of his game sans injury are that he does not get to the rim and finish and he is a shooting guard only. It is clear no matter what that Smith Jr. lives on his runner/floater inside the two-point arc and goes to his mid range jumper when that doesn’t work. This is less of an issue if one were selling Nick Smith Jr. as a role player, but as a featured scorer with top potential, it is worrisome that he does not look to attack the rim. And his size does limit who he can guard. I have also seen plenty an evaluator question Nick Smith Jr.’s quickness to handle guarding point guards, and if that does end up being a reality then he WILL only be on shooting guards with that size.
If you still buy into him, however, it is easily understandable because this guy was a BUCKET in high school. As a Senior at North Little Rock High School, Nick Smith Jr. put up 26.5 points per game 8.0 rebounds per game, and 7.3 assists per game. And to be fair to Nick Smith Jr., MANY of these skills were on display last summer as Arkansas went on a tour of Europe playing different professional teams in scrimmages. He can use his jumper and floater to attack in a variety of ways even if he does not get to the line as much as you would like. 26.5 points per game is no easy feat even in high school and at the very least I believe tells you this is NOT a one-dimensional scorer. I think these parts of his profile ought to keep him in lottery range at the very least because you just can’t find too make natural scorers like this who exploded at every level.
Here’s hoping Nick Smith Jr.’s knee is fully healthy this offseason so he can be able to show NBA teams more of what he can do during workouts.
Tier 5: Stick Them In the Rotation
26) Colby Jones, PG/SG Xavier
27) James Nnaji, C Barcelona
28) Tristan Da Silva, SF/SG Colorado
29) Max Lewis, SF/SG Pepperdine
30) Jalen Wilson, PF/SF Kansas
31) Julian Phillips, SF/PF Tennessee
32) Jordan Miller, SF/SG Miami
33) Seth Lundy, SF/PF Penn State
34) Tyler Burton, SF/PF Richmond
35) Jaylen Clark, SG/SF UCLA
36) Jaime Jacquez, PF/C UCLA
37) Tristan Vukčević, C/PF KK Partizan
38) Trayce Jackson-Davis, C Indiana
39) Daron Holmes II, C Dayton
40) Julian Strawther, SF/SG Gonzaga
41) Trey Alexander, SG/PG Creighton
42) Reece Beekman, PG/SG Virginia
43) Marcus Sasser, PG/SG Houston
44) Isaiah Wong, PG/SG Miami
45) Nijel Pack, SG/PG Miami
46) Terquavion Smith, SG NC State
47) Noah Clowney, C/PF Alabama
48) Leonard Miller, PF/SF G League Ignite
49) Nathan Mensah, C San Diego State
50) Jalen Pickett, PG/SG Penn State
51) Adem Bona, C UCLA
52) Toumani Camara, PF/SF Dayton
53) Sidy Cissoko, SF/SG G League Ignite
54) Judah Mintz, SG Syracuse
55) Mike Miles, PG TCU
56) Andre Jackson, PG/SF UConn
57) Landers Nolley II, SG/SF Cincinnati
58) Mike Sharavjamts, SG/SF Dayton
Jordan Miller is someone I bought into very late this season, but once I started looking more into the tape I went all in on this defensive ace. He put up career highs in his per game stats at Miami as a fifth-year senior helping the Canes reach the Final Four: 15.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists on shooting splits of 60.2% from two, 35.2% from three, and 78.4% from the free throw line. And the actual foundation of Miller’s game is defense. This guy will pick you up the minute you get out of bed in the morning. All of this in a six-foot six-inch tall 202 pound frame—sounds like a high-level 3-and-D candidate to me!
The problem is the 3 in that 3-and-D is a huge question mark. 35.2% is okay, but being that Miller took only too 2.5 three-point attempts per game, and that 35.2% is his career high tells you we are NOT talking about knock down three-point shooter. This is a skill he still is developing and may take another year or two to be a consistent NBA skill for Miller—and even then he may still be only an average shooter at best.
Still, the defense, the fact he can pass on the move, and shooting 133/182 (73.1%!!!) on shots at the rim make me want to buy all the Jordan Miller stock I can and believe his shooting will continue to improve.
Seth Lundy, on the other hand, is someone I have been tracking for a while now due to his size and shooting abilities. Standing six-foot six-inches tall and weighing in at 219 pounds Lundy has NBA forward size. A career 36.8% shooter from long range with a three-point attempt-rate of 60.5% means that Lundy ALSO comes into the league equipped with NBA-level shooting ability. It also helps that in his fourth year, Lundy posted career highs in points, rebounds, assists, and his shooting percentages from two and three-point range. Ending your NCAA career as the second leading scorer on a 23-14 second round March Madness Nittany Lions squad while posting shooting splits of 53.3% from two, 40.0% from three, and 80.7% from the free throw line is how you finish strong.
Athleticism is the biggest question mark for Seth Lundy’s NBA potential. While not a bad athlete, he can best be describe as an average athlete by NBA standards. He does not profile as someone who is switchable onto quicker guards and wings for certain. And, while I feel confident he can hold his ground against many NBA centers, he will have trouble dealing with the length of the guys down low in the NBA. Lundy also is not someone who will generate much offense on his own, but to me this is a MINOR gripe as I buy into his role player skills and would develop him as such.
BUY INTO SETH LUNDY AS SHOOTER IN THE NBA! If you need anymore convincing, just look at his shot chart and see how he has NO weak spot from downtown.
Check out my thoughts on both of these players as possible selections for the Pistons at pick #31 on the Woodward Pistons Draft Show as I am joined by Mr. Draft Deeper Nathan Grubel of No Ceilings.
Tier 6: I Believe! I Believe!
59) Terrence Shannon Jr., SG/SF Illinois
60) Mojave King, SG/SF G League Ignite
61) Brandin Podziemski, SG/PG Santa Clara
62) Matt Bradley, SG/PG San Diego State
63) Drew Peterson, SG/SF USC
64) Jalen Slawson, PF/SF Furman
65) Kobe Brown, PF/C Missouri
66) Jaylen Forbes, SG Tulane
67) Amari Bailey, PG/SG UCLA
68) Nikola Đurišić, SF/PF Mega
69) Azuolas Tubelis, PF/C Arizona
70) Adam Flagler, PG/SG Baylor
71) Qua Grant, PG/SG Sam Houston State
72) Ben Sheppard, SG/SF Belmont
73) David Singleton, SG/SF UCLA
74) Dillon Mitchell, PF/SF Texas
75) Coleman Hawkins, PF/SF Illinois
76) D’Moi Hodge, SG/PG Missouri
77) Arthur Kaluma, PF/SF Creighton
78) Omari Moore, SG/PG San Jose State
79) Caleb McConnell, SF/SG Rutgers
80) Nate Laszewski, PF/C Notre Dame
81) Connor Vanover, C Oral Roberts
82) Tevian Jones, SG/SF Southern Utah
83) Taevion Kinsey, SG/PG Marshall
84) Jake Stephens, C Chattanooga
85) Pete Nance, PF/C North Carolina
86) Antonio Reeves, SG Kentucky
87) Ricky Council IV, SG/SF Arkansas
88) Ousmane N’diaye, C/PF Baskonia
89) Antoine Davis, PG/SG Detroit Mercy
90) Branden Carlson, C Utah
91) Adama Sanogo, C/PF UConn
92) Efe Abogidi, C/PF G League Ignite
93) Drew Timme, C Gonzaga
94) Tyler Robertson, PG/SF Portland
95) Tajion Jones, SG/SF UNC Asheville
96) Armaan Franklin, SG Virginia
97) Kevin McCullar, PG/SG Kansas
98) Kamaka Hepa, PF/SF Hawaii
99) Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu, PF/C Memphis
100) Alex Fudge, PF/SF Florida
Being the Detroit Piston fan that I am you know defense is a skill I value very highly, and of all the prospects I’ve looked at there are few who I buy into on that side of the ball as much as Sam Houston State’s Qua Grant. Pronounced Quway, The 2023 WAC Player of the year gets after it on defense and reminds me a lot of former UDFA and reigning Rising Stars MVP Jose Alvarado. DEFENSE is what gets Qua Grant playing time and what sticks out on tape when you watch him. At six-foot one-inch tall and 200 pounds, Grant is more stout than Jose. Grant’s playmaking was also more advanced than Jose’s as Qua posted a 31.3% assist percentage as a Senior with Sam Houston State. The cherry on top is Grant’s 36.2% from three on 4.5 attempts per game—so he has defense, playmaking and shooting down.
What was much worse than Jose, however, is Grant’s ability to finish at the rim and being an efficient offensive player. Shooting 53.2% at the rim and 36.5% in the paint screams struggles finishing over bigger defenders. Some of this can be attributed to taking on a big scoring load as Grant’s 29.1% usage shows us, but the fact that Grant is not a great leaper and doesn’t have a go-to shot or move when he is in the paint means this is THE area for improvement Grant needs to address ASAP.
Grant is also someone who made a major impact when he was given major minutes. Spending three years at West Texas A&M before transferring up, he left the Buffalos with: an 85-8 record, conference titles in BOTH the regular season and the conference tournament all three years, two elite eight NCAA Division II Tournament Appearances, and West Texas A&M’s first ever appearance in the NCAA Division II title game. While Wichita State never game Qua Grant anything beyond 6th man minutes, Sam Houston State plugged him in as their star the year after. And now he ends his playing career leading Sam Houston State to their best winning percentage in the last 20 years; their 26 wins ties the second most wins they have had in their last 37 seasons; and all of this against the strongest strength of schedule the school has EVER had in their entire history.
I believe Qua Grant knows how to help his team win A LOT.
There might not be a more fascinating UDFA this draft season than Marshall’s Taevion Kinsey. An explosive athlete who WILL be in the NBA Dunk Contest if he makes a roster in the future, Kinsey also possesses great passing abilities, and translates his athleticism into elite level finishing in the paint and at the rim. Scoring 22.1 points per game and dishing out 173 assists to just 69 turnovers shows Kinsey knows how to run an offense as the primary scorer and facilitator. Throw in his 195 free throw attempts (a career high) at 74.4% and you can see this is ball-handler that attacks the rack.
Look at his shot chart and you will see he is a really good paint scorer and is absolutely on FIRE at the rim.
Like I said earlier, Kinsey is NOT one of those dunkers who cannot translate that athleticism into functional offense on the court. He combines this with good ball handling abilities and that passing to continually find ways to attack opposing defenses in multiple ways.
What Kinsey ABSOLUTELY DOES NOT POSSESSES is shooting. Posting a 16.5% Three-point Attempt Rate across four years of college ball tells you he is HESITANT to take threes and his career 30.2% from three screams at you that he is not very good even when he does take them. I keep it real in these evals and Kinsey is an alarmingly bad shooter that I have to give major warnings on. DO NOT LET THE 40% AND GREATER HE POSTED IN HIS THIRD AND FOURTH YEARS FOOL YOU. The ONLY season where Taevion Kinsey attempted over 2.3 shots from three per game he shot 18.3% DID YOU HEAR WHAT I JUST SAID?! That is not just a red flag, but a red banner hanging from a skyscraper that’s lit on fire while the guy that did it screams at you through a megaphone.
I HATE to do this, but when a prospect has an alarming bad weakness it does not help them and their evaluation to hand wave it as if it will just go away with one off-season’s worth of work. To put it another way, Kinsey has been on the highest of high Draft Evaluator’s radar for MULTIPLE seasons now because of his athleticism, passing, and ability to put constant pressure on the rim. If Kinsey had ANY sliver of hope for his shooting he would have been drafted already.
My gut tells me this is a guy teams like New Orleans and Oklahoma City already have on speed dial since both teams employ two of the best shot coaches in the NBA. Even without needing a top notch shot doctor, Kinsey can do a ton of other things on the basketball court that a Gary Payton II type role is not out of the question in the future. For any team that has a plan and the patience to develop him, I think Taevion Kinsey could give that squad big returns if everything for him breaks right.
Thank you as always for reading our work here at RezBall. Be sure to share the, post, comment, and leave us a like. Onward we go in Draft Season to the Lottery on May 16 and the NBA Combine that starts that same day and finishes May 18th!